International Association of Hydrogeologists Australia

Quantifying Predictive Uncertainty Under Climate Change Scenarios

Join the IAH WA branch for our next talk, to be presented by Dr Eduardo de Sousa of Intera:

Combining weather forecast and groundwater modelling ensembles to quantify predictive uncertainty under climate change

Predictive modelling includes assumptions about system variables in the future.

In groundwater flow modelling often one of the main driving variables is the amount of rainfall recharge. At the same time long-term weather forecasts and impact of climate change come along with significant uncertainty.

To overcome this problem, classic predictive modelling often uses a single “worst case” climate change scenario.

This talk describes a simple methodology involving the propagation of rainfall forecast uncertainty in to predictive groundwater modelling workflows, with a case study in southwestern Australia.


Dr. Eduardo de Sousa is a Principal Hydrogeologist and Managing Director at INTERA Australia. He has over two decades of experience in delivering modelling solutions in groundwater systems of high complexity, including modelling of geothermal systems, dewatering design and optimisation, environmental impact assessments and pore pressure modelling for slope stability analyses. Over the last decade, Eduardo has focused on the development and implementation of methodologies to evaluate uncertainty associated to groundwater predictive estimates, and the impact of uncertainty in risk management and decision making.

Please sign up via Eventbrite so we have an idea of numbers

The talk will also be streamed via Teams for those unable to attend in person. (link to follow)

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