International Association of Hydrogeologists Australia

Groundwater Modelling Uncertainty: Implications for Decision – Making. Summary Report of the GMU workshop – AGC2017

Wednesday 24 April, 2019

Modelling uncertainty issues are discussed in chapter 7 of the Australian Groundwater Modelling Guidelines (AGMG; Barnett et al., 2012). However, there has been generally poor uptake of uncertainty methods and a perception of low value for money from the results of uncertainty analysis and/or poor appreciation of how to make decisions based on a range of predictive simulations and results expressed with probabilities rather than ‘a single number’. This is despite the AGMG guiding principle 7.1: ‘Because a single “true” model cannot be constructed, modelling results presented to decision makers should include estimates of uncertainty’.

This report provides a summary of the outcomes from the 2017 national groundwater modelling uncertainty workshop convened by the National Centre for Groundwater Research and Training (NCGRT), and the subsequent modelling outlook panel session held at the Australasian Groundwater Conference (AGC) on 10 and 13 July 2017, respectively. The purpose of this report is to provide simple documentation of the workshop proceedings (inputs, outputs and discussions).

Click here to read the Groundwater Modelling Uncertainty Workshop Report

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